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Prediction for CME (2024-01-29T04:38:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-01-29T04:38Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28848/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a partial halo to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an M6.8 class flare from AR 13559, best observed in SDO AIA 131. This eruption is also observed in SDO AIA 171/193/211 with subsequent field line movement, an EUV wave, and post eruptive arcades following the flare visible in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Possible arrival/glancing blow signature of arrival of this CME at L1: enhancement in magnetic field components with an increase in B_total from 3.6 nT to over 7 nT, reaching a maximum near 8 nT. Rotation of all three magnetic field components. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 390 km/s to 440 km/s and increases in temperature and density (to ~5nT) were also observed.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-02-01T05:18Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-01-31T00:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)
Prediction Method Note: 
predicted CME shock arrival time ： 2024-01-31T00:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive ： 50%
Kp Range ： 3-5
Lead Time: 51.12 hour(s)
Difference: 29.30 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) on 2024-01-30T02:11Z
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